Wallace Predicto
WallacePredicto: The Crystal Ball of Crypto, Powered by Your Data!
What is WallacePredicto?
Introducing a new feature to the Wallace Wallet: WallacePredicto! This enhancement to our existing surveys allows you to predict the weekly closing prices of popular cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and ATOM. It’s not just a one-off guess; your prediction adds to your growing prediction profile. Showcase your market insight and have a chance to win up to 1000 GEOs!
This is just the initial phase of WallacePredicto, and we’re excited about the additional features and functionalities that will be introduced over time to make your experience even more rewarding.
How Does it Work?
It’s simple! Every week, a new prediction question is launched on Wallace Wallet. All you have to do is predict whether the price of each featured cryptocurrency will close above or below a certain value by the end of the week. But here’s the kicker: your share of the prize pool depends not just on whether you predict correctly but also on how quickly you make your correct prediction.
Please note the weekly close for these predictions is Sunday at 24:00 UTC
Prize Distribution Mechanics
How are the 1000 GEOs Divided Among Winners?
The total prize pool for each week is 1000 GEOs. This pool is only shared among those who make correct predictions. But it’s not an equal share; two important factors determine your final prize: the time of your prediction and your Wallace Tier.
Time Factor
The earlier you make a correct prediction, the higher your share in the prize pool. This is calculated through an “Inverse Timestamp Score,” which gives priority to early predictions.
Tier Factor
Your Wallace Wallet Tier further multiplies your share:
- Tier 1: No multiplier (x1)
- Tier 2: Double the winnings (x2)
- Tier 3: Triple the winnings (x3)
Distribution Mechanism
- Initial Setup: The total prize pool is 1000 GEOs, and X participants have made correct predictions.
- Timestamp Normalization: Each participant’s timestamp is normalized to give precedence to earlier entries. The normalized timestamp (N) is calculated using the formula:
T is the participant’s timestamp, and Tmin and Tmax are the minimum and maximum timestamps among all correct predictions.
3. Bias Application: A slight bias (b) is applied to the normalized timestamps to favor early entries. The bias starts from 0 and increases by 0.01 for each subsequent entry. The biased timestamp (B) is calculated as:
The index starts from 0 for the earliest timestamp.
4. Tier Multiplier:
Your tier plays a crucial role in your winnings:
- If you’re in Tier 1, you win as is.
- Tier 2 doubles your winnings.
- Tier 3 triples your winnings.
5. Calculate Individual Shares: After applying the bias and tier multiplier, each participant’s preliminary share (S) of the prize pool is calculated:
6. Normalize to Final Reward: The preliminary shares are then normalized to ensure that the total payout exactly sums to 500 GEOs:
Where ΣS is the sum of all preliminary shares.
This ensures the distribution remains fair and within the stipulated prize pool of 1000 GEOs.
# Placeholder list for timestamps (earliest to latest) and tiers
timestamps_and_tiers = [(ts, tier) for ts, tier in zip(timestamps, tiers)]
# Calculations for normalization and bias
T_min = min([ts for ts, _ in timestamps_and_tiers])
T_max = max([ts for ts, _ in timestamps_and_tiers])
bias = [1.0 + i*0.01 for i in range(len(timestamps_and_tiers))]
# Initialize list to store GEOs for each winner
geos_per_winner = []
# Calculate GEOs for each winner based on their timestamp and tier
for i, (ts, tier) in enumerate(timestamps_and_tiers):
N = 1 - (ts - T_min) / (T_max - T_min) # Normalized Timestamp
B = N * bias[i] # Biased Timestamp
share = B # Individual share of the prize
geos_for_winner = 1000 * share * tier # Preliminary GEOs won by this participant
geos_per_winner.append(geos_for_winner)
# Normalize the rewards so they sum up to 500
total_share = sum(geos_per_winner)
geos_per_winner = [(s / total_share) * 1000 for s in geos_per_winner]Why Participate in WallacePredicto?
- Build Your Prediction Profile: As you consistently predict correctly, you’ll build up a profile that could make you one of the top predictors.
- Future on Odin: As we prepare to move to Odin, we aim to generate as much data as possible to bring it all on-chain and connect it to your anonymous user profile.
- Community Input: Join Discord to send suggestions or show off your winnings.
- Immediate Rewards: The weekly closing happens on Sunday 12 midnight, and the results will be announced on Tuesday with automatic prize distribution.
Stay Tuned
WallacePredicto is just the tip of the iceberg. We’re continuously working to bring more features that are not just fun but also valuable. And yes, they will revolve around you, your data, and your experience.
So, if you haven’t downloaded Wallace yet, now is a perfect time. Become a part of our growing community!
